TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2009

Nicaragua Network Hotline (October 20, 2009)

1. Supreme Court approves consecutive reelection
2. Poll shows majority support for health and education but low approval for political figures
3. Army guarantees security amid hopes for a big coffee harvest
4. Assembly passes final changes to 2009 budget; 2010 budget and tax reform bill introduced
5. Miskito Council of Elders continues to proclaim independence for Moskitia

Topic 1: Supreme Court approves consecutive reelection

Late in the day on Monday, Oct. 19, the Constitutional Panel of Nicaragua's Supreme Court ruled favorably on a petition from President Daniel Ortega and 105 Sandinista mayors that their rights were being violated by a provision in the constitution (as amended in 1995) which did not permit their consecutive reelection to office. Ortega was following in the steps of President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica who also recently successfully appealed to the highest court in his country to allow him to run for consecutive terms of office.

Reaction from the opposition was swift. Former presidential candidate and current National Assembly Deputy Eduardo Montealegre said the decision was “a coup d'état” and called on the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations to intervene. Dora Maria Tellez, a leader in the Sandinista Renovation Movement, said that the Sandinista justices had committed a serious crime and should be in jail. Former President Arnoldo Aleman said the Supreme Court had been “assaulted” by the Sandinista justices who issued the judgment. Opposition commentators said that the ruling was made on short notice and without the presence of Liberal justices, two of whom said they were not notified in time and one of whom was out of town.

Ortega told a television audience, “I will say to those people that they should calm down and not drown in a glass of water. To solve this we have the 2011 elections. What are they afraid of?”

Topic 2: Poll shows majority support for health and education but low approval for political figures

An M&R Poll released last week indicated that over 50% of the population of Nicaragua supported government policies on health care and education. However, La Prensa, which published the poll results, gave no number and did not give figures on public opinion about other government programs. La Prensa did report that most prominent government and opposition political figures were held in low esteem according to the poll. M&R interviewed 1,600 people in urban, semi-rural and rural areas between Sept. 23 and Oct. 2. The margin of error of the poll was 2.5% with a level of confidence of 95.5%.

M&R said that in terms of political party identification, 32.8% of respondents declared themselves Sandinistas; 14.4% Liberals and 50.3% said that they had no party. The percentage of respondents who believe that President Daniel Ortega is democratic and following the law was 38.9% and the percentage who believe his government is seeking unity and reconciliation among Nicaraguans was 39.1%. These figures are virtually identical to the vote percentage Ortega received in 2007 when he won with a plurality in a four way race.

The person with the highest approval rating was National Police Commissioner Aminta Granera at 84.7%, followed by Head of the Army General Omar Halleslevens with 75.6%. Other figures with high approval ratings were former President Violeta Chamorro (72%), Managua Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes (71.4%), and former Sandinista Mayor of Managua Dionisio Marenco (62.5%).

Another recent president of Nicaragua, Arnoldo Aleman, held the highest disapproval rating with 60.3%. He was followed by First Lady and head of the Council of Citizenship and Communications Rosario Murillo with 53.6%, former Liberal presidential candidate Jose Rizo with 53.1%, President Daniel Ortega with 49.5%, and former Liberal presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre with 48.7% negative ratings. When asked who were the leaders of the political opposition in Nicaragua, 32.6% answered “no one,” 26% said Aleman, and 24.9% said Montealegre.

Topic 3: Army guarantees security amid hopes for a big harvest

On October 15, Head of the Army Gen. Omar Halleslevens promised coffee growers a secure harvest due to the assignment of 1,200 army personnel to patrol the coffee growing regions to protect against crime. Coffee producers are optimistic that the harvest, which begins in October will end a difficult year for the industry during which the price remained stable but production dropped considerably. Amilcar Navarro, president of the Nicaraguan Union of Coffee Growers (UNICAFE) stated that coffee exports this year closed at 1.4 million hundredweights (100 lbs). This was well below the 2 million hundredweights exported the previous year. Coffee producer and National Assembly Deputy for the Constitutional Liberal Party, Freddy Torres, predicted that this year's exports would hit 1.8 million hundredweights bringing the country more than US$200 million in foreign exchange.

Lots of sun and little rain have brought on early ripening of the coffee, especially in the lower altitudes. This has raised some concern about potential labor shortages. Growers are negotiating a new minimum wage with the Ministry of Labor to make sure they are paying a high enough wage so that workers will not go to other countries for the harvest. Costa Rica is currently offering higher pay but is also tightening border control to discourage Nicaraguan migration. In addition to the hope for an increased harvest is the hope that international coffee futures prices will rise. Last week futures for March 2010 were selling for US$141/hundredweight. This contrasts with production costs which have remained high despite the drop in oil prices.

Coffee producers have a new option for sales thanks to the growing internal market for coffee. There are no accurate figures on internal consumption but it is estimated at 15% of production. There is increased interest among young people in new coffee drinks such as iced coffee.

Topic 4: Assembly passes final changes to 2009 budget; 2010 budget and tax reform bill introduced

On Oct. 13, the National Assembly passed the final necessary changes to the 2009 national budget with the 38 votes of the Sandinista Party (FSLN), five from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), and five from the National Unity Bench (BUN). Sandinista Deputy Walmaro Gutierrez explained that in the three modifications that the government has made to the year's budget, the total reduction has been US$137 million of which US$85 million has been in capital improvements (a 60% reduction) and US$69 million in day to day expenditures (a 40% reduction).

On Oct. 15, the 2010 budget and the new tax reform bill were introduced in the Assembly. The budget for 2010 totaled US$1.6 billion with a deficit of US$291 million and expected revenues of US$1.26 billion based on approval of the tax reform bill proposed by the administration of President Daniel Ortega and introduced the same day. Minister of the Treasury Alberto Guevara said that expenditures on health and education form 33% of the budget.

Education Minister Miguel De Castilla said that education is allotted US$270 million in the new budget (somewhat less than 2009), adding that ideally the education budget would be three times that. But he said, the Ministry would continue to prioritize school lunches and adult literacy. Teachers' raises will be less, he admitted. The average teacher's salary in the Central American region is US$278 per month while in Nicaragua it is only US$172.

Presidential economic advisor Bayardo Arce said that the deficit will be covered with the issuing of bonds and the US$90 million expected from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) upon approval of the budget and tax reform measures. Sandinista Party members blamed the budget cuts on the drop in revenues due to the world financial crisis while opposition party loyalists blamed the shortfalls on cut-offs of budget support aid from European countries based on allegations of fraud in the Nov. 2008 municipal elections and on the fact that funds from Venezuela through ALBA go directly to independent agencies and are not included in the budget.

Topic 5: Miskito Council of Elders continues to proclaim independence for Moskitia

On Oct. 18, 500 people marched in Bilwi along with the Wihta Tara (great judge) of the Miskito separatist movement, Hector Williams. The goal of the gathering had been to take over the House of Government of the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) but a heavy rainstorm lowered the expected turnout and the building was strongly guarded by special forces of the National Police. When the situation became tense, Williams announced that he would give the regional authorities 24 hours to turn over the keys to the autonomous government buildings to him. Oscar Hodgson stated that the movement would take over the regional government because it is a “cave of corruption” with regional council members who “have not been able to respond to the needs of the communities that elected them.”

However, La Prensa reported that there are sectors in Bilwi that, while they do not support the current government, are not in favor of the protests and reject the independence movement. The daily noted that religious services in Bilwi on the 18th included prayers that violence not erupt in the region.

RAAN leader Steadman Fagoth, head of the National Institute of Fisheries, said that the government had offered to assist the independence movement leaders in formulating proposals for changes to the Autonomy Law, passed in 1987. However, the independence movement has accused Fagoth himself of corruption and refuses to talk with him.

Head of the Army Omar Halleslevens said that no extra troops have been moved to the RAAN. He stated that it was the Police who had the responsibility in these cases, adding that this type of situation should not be resolved by force but by discussion “through verbal interaction between people and in this case between the different ethnic groups and the authorities.”

Meanwhile, Lumberto Campbell, political secretary of the Sandinista Party (FSLN) for the Atlantic Coast, said that after the municipal elections of March 2010, the government will work to deepen the autonomy process in the communities there. He said that under the Ortega government, the residents of the Coast were seeing the benefits of autonomy. He said, “Now, things have to have the approval of the communal, territorial and regional governments and there is an attitude of recognition of the historic rights of the people of the Coast to govern themselves.” He added that there have been improvements in roads, bridges and electricity, loans to fishermen, programs for small farmers under the Zero Hunger Program and the issuing of communal property titles to indigenous communities.

This hotline is prepared from the Nicaragua News Service and other sources. To receive a more extensive weekly summary of the news from Nicaragua by e-mail or postal service, send a check for $60.00 to Nicaragua Network, 1247 E St., SE, Washington, DC 20003. We can be reached by phone at 202-544-9355. Our web site is: www.nicanet.org. To subscribe to the Hotline, send an e-mail to nicanet@afgj.org
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