THURSDAY, JANUARY 17, 2008
Nicaragua Network Hotline (January 8, 2008)
Topics covered in this hotline include:1. Ortega administration gains ground in ongoing power struggle
2. Opposition plans to boycott Ortega's “State of the Union” address
3. Survey shows support for Government social programs in Managua
4. Government concerned about oil price increase but does not predict blackouts for 2008
5. Hundreds of Nicaraguans deported from Costa Rica during the week
Topic 1: Ortega administration gains ground in ongoing power struggle
It would appear that the Ortega administration is gaining ground in the ongoing power struggle between the Legislative and Executive branches which has intensified during the last few weeks after the installment of the Councils of Citizen Power (CPCs). Business sectors and political elites have put increasing pressure on opposition leaders Eduardo Montealegre (Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance) and Arnoldo Aleman (Constitutional Liberal Party) calling for an immediate agreement with the government to ensure an end to the adverse economic consequences of the ongoing political crisis.
On Jan. 4, after a meeting with President Daniel Ortega, PLC insider Francisco Aguirre Sacasa said that an agreement between the branches of government, which would include the ratification of Ortega's 2008 National Budget proposal, was necessary in order to reduce the impact of the global financial crisis on the national economy. Aguirre emphasized the importance of the political situation returning to “status quo,” in other words, that the opposition parties desist from their efforts to undermine the FSLN government's agenda.
After the meeting both Aguirre and Ortega spoke of the importance of guaranteeing that social and economic affairs are not “contaminated” by political problems and disputes, especially considering the unfavorable international economic situation and the added political pressure of the upcoming November municipal elections. Aguirre said that it would be “unwise” for the opposition to carry out radical changes to the Executive's 2008 National Budget proposal which, he emphasized, was drafted as part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Also on Jan. 4 the American Chamber of Commerce in Nicaragua (AMCHAM) issued a statement demanding the immediate negotiation of an agreement between the opposition and government which would guarantee that “all efforts be focused, ... in a patriotic fashion,” on reducing the impact of the current international financial crisis caused by a US recession and record international oil prices.
During the last two weeks members of the opposition parties, which in December created the so-called Block Against the Dictatorship, have threatened to carry out “profound changes” to the Executive's 2008 National Budget proposal, reducing significantly the amount of money designated to key government programs such as Zero Hunger and Zero Usury. These threats were repeated on Jan. 2 by Montealegre who went on to say that the opposition deputies had agreed to vote in favor of an amnesty for public officials and other alleged or convicted criminals involved in corruption scandals and to suspend the current postponement of a set of constitutional reforms which would dramatically reduce the powers of the Executive branch.
Rafael Solis, Vice President of the Supreme Court and an influential Sandinista, announced on Jan. 3 that the FSLN had now ensured enough votes within the National Assembly to reject the political agenda of the opposition. This was followed, on Jan. 4 by claims from opposition leaders that the FSLN is bribing PLC and ALN deputies to vote against the proposed amnesty, budget amendments and implementation of the constitutional changes.
Meanwhile, the investigation into three of the men implicated in the CENIS scandal continued this week. The three men being investigated by the Attorney General are Montealegre, Mario Alonso and Gilberto Cuadra. On Jan. 5 Head of the Office of the Comptroller General Luis Angel Montenegro presented a detailed report about the losses suffered by the national treasury as a result of fraudulent activities by the former directors of the Central Bank. According to Montenegro, the total losses suffered by the treasury as a result of the CENIS being issued were US$429 million. Further multi-million dollar losses followed during the auctioning of three bankrupt bank's assets, when, for example, assets worth US$106.6 million were sold for US$9.1 million. Montenegro said that the Central Bank Board of Directors' decisions concerning “every aspect of the CENIS scandal” were “unanimous.” Montealegre reiterated his demand that the investigation be suspended.
Topic 2: Opposition plans to boycott Ortega's “State of the Union” address
Leaders of the opposition parties confirmed plans to boycott the January 10 National Assembly session when President Daniel Ortega will present his first presidential yearly report. According to Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) Vice President Wilfredo Navarro there is “definitely a decision within the Block Against the Dictatorship not to attend ... so that the Assembly is empty of representation of the National Assembly's [non-Sandinistas] to show the people's rejection of Daniel Ortega's administration.” Leaders of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS), Eduardo Montealegre and Enrique Saenz, also confirmed that the deputies of their two parties had made a similar decision.
In response, Sandinista (FSLN) Deputy Gustavo Porras announced plans for a protest march on Jan. 10 to reject the attitude of the opposition. After marching through the main streets of Managua Porras said supporters of the FSLN government would gather outside and inside the National Assembly in order to express their support of the government during Ortega's first annual report. “The Assembly won't be empty if members of the general public are in there ... so let the President present his annual report to the people.”
It was confirmed this week that members of the foreign diplomatic corps in Nicaragua do plan to attend Ortega's presentation, as do representatives of the judicial and electoral branches, the Attorney General, the Comptroller General Office, the Nicaraguan Army and National Police.
Topic 3: Survey shows support for Government social programs in Managua
A survey carried out by the Nicaraguan Institute of Social Studies and Investigations demonstrates that there is majority support for the government's social programs. 2,100 people from across Managua and the surrounding rural areas were interviewed as part of the survey. All the people interviewed were over 16 years of age, 52% were women and 48% were men.
68.3% of those interviewed describe the changes in the public health system brought about by the Sandinista (FSLN) government this year as “very good,” while 71.9% consider the re-nationalization of the education system is a “positive” move. Government program Zero Hunger was considered as “good” or “very good” by 55% of those interviewed, while 55.1% thought the same about the Zero Usury program. 60.5% described the extra support the government has given to campesinos, cattle farmers and agriculture in general this year is “good” or “very good,” while 65.5% said the same about the public transportation subsidy which has stabilized the price of the service in Managua. The subsidy is made possible by the importation of Venezuelan oil under preferential payment conditions.
Topic 4: Government concerned about oil price increase but does not predict blackouts for 2008
On Jan. 3 Energy Minister Emilio Rappaccioli said there was “special concern” within the Nicaraguan government about the latest increase in the international price of oil. A new record of US$100 a barrel was registered in New York stock on Jan. 3 amidst serious international tensions and intense speculation. Rappaccioli said that, despite this, the government does not expect to see blackouts during 2008 because it will be able to import 100% of the national oil demand from Venezuela. This will be confirmed, he said, with the signing of an agreement between US multinational Exxon-Mobil and the government to lease the oil company's unused storage tanks in Corinto on or before Jan. 10.
“Logically the increase [in the price of oil] makes electrical energy generation more expensive in Nicaragua, as it does in the rest of the world, but that does not mean that there will be a lack of fuel to generate electricity [in this country], ... fortunately we have great security due to the fact that we can import ... and will continue to import [enough] oil from Venezuela,” said Rappaccioli.
So far Exxon-Mobil has been very quiet about the agreement Rappaccioli says the company will sign with the government. Exxon-Mobil is one of two oil companies to pull out of Venezuela's Orinoco oil fields after Venezuela passed a law to purchase majority control of oil extraction ventures. Exxon-Mobil, which previously had a virtual monopoly on oil imports to Nicaragua has resisted having its storage facilities in Corinto used for Venezuelan oil. Refusal to allow oil to be pumped into its storage tanks meant that oil tankers docking in Corinto had to pump their oil directly into tanker trucks, a much more time consuming process which contributed to Nicaragua's long black-outs of the past year.
Topic 5: Hundreds of Nicaraguans deported from Costa Rica during the week
Approximately 600 Nicaraguans have been deported from Costa Rica during the last week after entering the country illegally. At least that many more were refused entry at the Costa Rican border despite already having paid the US$20 fee for a 30 day tourist visa. The vast majority of those deported or turned back are people who already live and work in Costa Rica as undocumented workers and were returning to the country after spending Christmas and New Year with family in Nicaragua. This is one of the busiest times of year at the Nicaraguan / Costa Rican border. It is thought during the last week that at least 4,000 Nicaraguans entered Costa Rica legally at the Peñas Blancas border point.
Head of the Costa Rican Immigration Police Francisco Castain said that migration controls are currently being tightened in order to avoid illegal immigration, people trafficking and the entrance of foreign criminals into the country. This clamping down, however, is causing distress for thousands of Nicaraguan families who face being separated as a result. Many of those Nicaraguans turned back or deported from Costa Rica over the last few days have family, homes and jobs in Costa Rica. Some, like Rosa Vasquez, have small children in Costa Rica and promise to do “whatever is necessary” to get back to her family and her job in Costa Rica.
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